AMERICA IS BECOMING LESS RELIGIOUS
In a recent poll by Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) “Religious Change in America” (2023) found that Americans increasingly are calling themselves "unaffiliated" with any religion or rejecting religion altogether. (This section of the article only looks at the survey’s statistics – to read the entire article (Americans continue to lose their Religion as GOP pushes it: https://www.axios.com/2024/03/29/americans-lose-religious-affiliation-survey)
According to the 2020 US Religion Census, 61,900,000 Americans identify as Roman Catholic, and 140,000,000 identify as Protestant. A 2023 Gallup poll found that 68% of Americans identify with a Christian religion, with 33% Protestant, 22% Catholic, and 13% identifying with another Christian religion or simply as a "Christian".
U.S. Church Membership Falls Below Majority for First Time
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Story Highlights
In 2020, 47% of U.S. adults belonged to a church, synagogue or mosque
Down more than 20 points from turn of the century
Change primarily due to rise in Americans with no religious preference
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans' membership in houses of worship continued to decline last year, dropping below 50% for the first time in Gallup's eight-decade trend. In 2020, 47% of Americans said they belonged to a church, synagogue or mosque, down from 50% in 2018 and 70% in 1999. U.S. church membership was 73% when Gallup first measured it in 1937 and remained near 70% for the next six decades, before beginning a steady decline around the turn of the 21st century. As many Americans celebrate Easter and Passover this week, Gallup updates a 2019 analysis that examined the decline in church membership over the past 20 years.
Gallup asks Americans a battery of questions on their religious attitudes and practices twice each year. The following analysis of declines in church membership relies on three-year aggregates from 1998-2000 (when church membership averaged 69%), 2008-2010 (62%), and 2018-2020 (49%). The aggregates allow for reliable estimates by subgroup, with each three-year period consisting of data from more than 6,000 U.S. adults.
Decline in Membership Tied to Increase in Lack of Religious Affiliation
The decline in church membership is primarily a function of the increasing number of Americans who express no religious preference. Over the past two decades, the percentage of Americans who do not identify with any religion has grown from 8% in 1998-2000 to 13% in 2008-2010 and 21% over the past three years. As would be expected, Americans without a religious preference are highly unlikely to belong to a church, synagogue or mosque, although a small proportion -- 4% in the 2018-2020 data -- say they do. That figure is down from 10% between 1998 and 2000.
Given the nearly perfect alignment between not having a religious preference and not belonging to a church, the 13-percentage-point increase in no religious affiliation since 1998-2000 appears to account for more than half of the 20-point decline in church membership over the same time. Most of the rest of the drop can be attributed to a decline in formal church membership among Americans who do have a religious preference. Between 1998 and 2000, an average of 73% of religious Americans belonged to a church, synagogue, or mosque. Over the past three years, the average has fallen to 60%.
Generational Differences Linked to Change in Church Membership
Church membership is strongly correlated with age, as 66% of traditionalists -- U.S. adults born before 1946 -- belong to a church, compared with 58% of baby boomers, 50% of those in Generation X and 36% of millennials. The limited data Gallup has on church membership among the portion of Generation Z that has reached adulthood are so far showing church membership rates like those for millennials.
The decline in church membership, then, appears largely tied to population change, with those in older generations who were likely to be church members being replaced in the U.S. adult population with people in younger generations who are less likely to belong. The change has become increasingly apparent in recent decades because millennials and Gen Z are further apart from traditionalists in their church membership rates (about 30 points lower) than baby boomers and Generation X are (eight and 16 points, respectively). Also, each year the younger generations are making up an increasingly larger part of the entire U.S. adult population.
Still, population replacement does not fully explain the decline in church membership, as adults in the older generations have shown roughly double-digit decreases from two decades ago. Church membership is down even more, 15 points, in the past decade among millennials.
Changes in Church Membership by Generation, Over Time
1998-2000 2008-2010 2018-2020 Change since
1998-2000 % % % pts.
Traditionalists (born before 1946) 77 73 66 -11
Baby boomers (born 1946-1964) 67 63 58 -9
Generation X (born 1965-1980) 62 57 50 -12
Millennials (born 1981-1996) n/a 51 36 n/a
Note: Given that Gallup's polls are based on the 18+ U.S. adult population, the 1980-2000 period would have included only a small proportion of the millennial generation, and the 2018-2020 period includes only a small proportion of Generation Z (born after 1996).
The two major trends driving the drop in church membership -- more adults with no religious preference and falling rates of church membership among people who do have a religion -- are apparent in each of the generations over time. Since the turn of the century, there has been a near doubling in the percentage of traditionalists (from 4% to 7%), baby boomers (from 7% to 13%) and Gen Xers (11% to 20%) with no religious affiliation. Currently, 31% of millennials have no religious affiliation, which is up from 22% a decade ago. Similarly, 33% of the portion of Generation Z that has reached adulthood have no religious preference.
Also, each generation has seen a decline in church membership among those who do affiliate with a specific religion. These declines have ranged between six and eight points over the past two decades for traditionalists, baby boomers and Generation X who identify with a religious faith. In just the past 10 years, the share of religious millennials who are church members has declined from 63% to 50%.
Church Membership Decline Seen in All Major Subgroups
As would be expected given the 20-point decline in church membership overall, the Gallup data show declines among all major subgroups of the U.S. population beyond age, with some differences in the size of that decline. Among religious groups, the decline in membership is steeper among Catholics (down 18 points, from 76% to 58%) than Protestants (down nine points, from 73% to 64%). This mirrors the historical changes in church attendance Gallup has documented among Catholics, with sharp declines among Catholics but not among Protestants. Gallup does not have sufficient data to analyze the trends for other religious faiths.
In addition to Protestants, declines in church membership are proportionately smaller among political conservatives, Republicans, married adults and college graduates. These groups tend to have among the highest rates of church membership, along with Southern residents and non-Hispanic Black adults.
Change, 1998-2000
1998-2000 2008-2010 2018-2020 to 2018-2020
% % % pct. pts.
Men 64 58 46 -18
Women 73 65 53 -20
Non-Hispanic White adults 68 62 52 -16
Non-Hispanic Black adults 78 70 59 -19
College graduate 68 65 54 -14
Not college graduate 69 60 47 -22
Married 71 68 58 -13
Not married 64 55 42 -22
Republican 77 75 65 -12
Independent 59 51 41 -18
Democrat 71 60 46 -25
Conservative 87 36 4 -14
Moderate 66 59 45 -21
Liberal 56 46 35 -21
East 69 58 44 -25
Midwest 72 66 54 -18
South 74 70 58 -16
West 57 51 38 -19
Protestant 73 72 64 -9
Catholic 76 73 58 -18
GALLUP
Over the past two decades, declines in church membership have been greater among Eastern residents and Democrats. Still, political independents have lower rates of church membership than Democrats do.
Changes in Church Membership, by Demographic Subgroup
The smaller declines seen among conservatives and other subgroups are largely attributable to more modest change among older generations within those groups. For example, conservatives in older generations have shown drops in church membership of between five and 13 points since 1998-2000, compared with the 20-point change among all U.S. adults. However, the influence of generation is apparent, in that church membership is lower in each younger generation of conservatives than in each older generation -- 51% of conservative millennials, 64% of conservative Gen Xers, 70% of conservative baby boomers and 71% of conservative traditionalists in 2018-2020 belong to a church.
Hispanic Church Membership
Church membership among Hispanic Americans in 2018-2020 was 37%, among the lowest for any major subgroup. Analysis of changes over time in Hispanic adults' church membership is complicated by a shift in Gallup methodology to include Spanish-language interviewing in all surveys beginning in 2011. Church membership rates are significantly lower among Hispanic respondents interviewed in Spanish than among Hispanic respondents interviewed in English. Thus, a comparison of current Hispanic church membership to past membership would overstate the decline by virtue of comparing mixed-language Hispanics today to English-speaking Hispanics, alone, in the earlier period.
Implications: The U.S. remains a religious nation, with more than seven in 10 affiliating with some type of organized religion. However, far fewer, now less than half, have a formal membership with a specific house of worship. While it is possible that part of the decline seen in 2020 was temporary and related to the coronavirus pandemic, continued decline in future decades seems inevitable, given the much lower levels of religiosity and church membership among younger versus older generations of adults.
Churches are only as strong as their membership and are dependent on their members for financial support and service to keep operating. Because it is unlikely that people who do not have a religious preference will become church members, the challenge for church leaders is to encourage those who do affiliate with a specific faith to become formal, and active, church members. While precise numbers of church closures are elusive, a conservative estimate is that thousands of U.S. churches are closing each year.
A 2017 Gallup study found churchgoers citing sermons as the primary reason they attended church. Majorities also said spiritual programs geared toward children and teenagers, community outreach and volunteer opportunities, and dynamic leaders were also factors in their attendance. A focus on some of these factors may also help local church leaders encourage people who share their faith to join their church.
The positive numbers are:
Unaffiliated +15.6pp
Other non-Christian religions +0.6
Hispanic Protestant +0.5
White evangelical Protestant +0.1
Latter-day Saint 0
The Negative numbers are:
Jewish -0.2
Black Protestant -1.1
Hispanic Catholic -3.4
White mainline/non-evangelical Protestant -4.4
White Catholic -6.0
Data: PRRI; Chart: Axios Visuals
Why it matters: The survey found that 26% of Americans now consider themselves unaffiliated with a religion. That's up 5 percentage points from 2013, and reflects a widening gap between how citizens and lawmakers see religion's role in society. The GOP is dominated by white evangelicals who have successfully pushed to limit abortion, ban books and restrict some LGBTQ+ rights. But the general public — especially younger Americans — is rapidly moving away from religions that endorse such policies. Just a slim majority of Americans (53%) now say that religion is important in their lives, down from 72% in 2013, the survey by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) says.
The findings suggest that Republicans who focus on evangelical priorities — such as former President Trump, who's now hawking Bibles, and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who flies a flag favored by Christian nationalists outside his office — are preaching to a loyal but dwindling audience.
The big picture: Among Christian groups, Catholics as a whole continue to lose more members than they gain — and are seeing the largest declines in affiliation of any religious group. In 2023, 18% of white Americans said they grew up as Catholics, but one-third of them said they no longer identify as members of their childhood faith. 12% of Hispanic Americans said they grew up as Catholics; one-third of them also said they no longer identify as such, but the percentage of Americans who identify as white evangelical Protestants appears to have stabilized after years of decline. Black Protestants and Jewish Americans have the highest retention rates of all religious groups. Overall, the survey found that one in 10 Americans in 2023 reported having grown up without a religious identity. Another 18% of Americans said they became unaffiliated after growing up in a particular religious tradition.
The intrigue: The jump in unaffiliated Americans comes as many say they no longer believe in their initial religion's teachings — or disagree with a religion's stance against LGBTQ+ people in particular. Among unaffiliated Americans younger than 30, "60% cite the treatments of LGBTQ as a reason they stop going to church," PRRI CEO Melissa Deckman tells Axios. The rise of Christian nationalism and GOP state legislators pushing anti-LGBTQ+ laws also is leading young people to turn away from organized religion, she said. Members of Congress are more Christian — and more religious — than the American public by wide margins, according to an analysis of data reviewed by Axios last year.
Methodology: PRRI conducted the survey on Nov. 16 and Dec. 7, 2023. The poll is based on a representative sample of 5,627 adults (age 18 and older) living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Among those, 5,303 are part of Ipsos' Knowledge Panel® and an additional 324 were recruited by Ipsos using opt-in survey panels to increase the sample sizes in smaller states.
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Gallup - Politics BY JEFFREY M. JONES MARCH 29, 2021 https://news.gallup.com/poll/341963/church-membership-falls-below-majority-first-time.aspx
The margin of sampling error is ±1.79 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample.